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Àííîòàöèÿ: Political psychologist Philip Tetlock became famous more than a decade ago for acomprehensive study that found that experts are no more accurate in their predictions than chimpanzees are at shooting a target. In other words, they are not accurate. Following this study, Tetlock embarked on a long journey in search of the recipe for better predictions. His book Superforecasts describes this fascinating and groundbreaking journey. More importantly, it explains why and how certain people — "superpredictors" — are able to predict the future much better than other people, including experts. The first conclusion of superpredictors is that it is possible to predict the future. The second conclusion is that precognition is not an innate, mysterious talent, but the result of certain ways of thinking and gathering information. Any intelligent, determined, and open-minded person can adopt such thinking habits. Anyone can predict the future better. Prediction is not an innate talent. It is a skill that can be cultivated. This book will show you how to do it.