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Àííîòàöèÿ: Political psychologist Philip Tetlock became famous more than a decade ago for acomprehensive study that found that experts are no more accurate in their predictions than chimpanzees are at shooting a target. In other words, they are not accurate. Following this study, Tetlock embarked on a long journey in search of the recipe for better predictions. His book Superforecasts describes this fascinating and groundbreaking journey. More importantly, it explains why and how certain people — "superpredictors" — are able to predict the future much better than other people, including experts. The first conclusion of superpredictors is that it is possible to predict the future. The second conclusion is that precognition is not an innate, mysterious talent, but the result of certain ways of thinking and gathering information. Any intelligent, determined, and open-minded person can adopt such thinking habits. Anyone can predict the future better. Prediction is not an innate talent. It is a skill that can be cultivated. This book will show you how to do it.

Àííîòàöèÿ: We are the safest humans who ever lived - the statistics prove it. And yet the media tells a different story with its warnings and scare stories. How is it possible that anxiety has become the stuff of daily life?In this ground-breaking, compulsively readable book, Dan Gardner shows how our flawed strategies for perceiving risk influence our lives, often with unforeseen and sometimes-tragic consequences. He throws light on our paranoia about everything from paedophiles to terrorism and reveals how the most significant threats are actually the mundane risks to which we pay little attention.Speaking to psychologists and scientists, as well as looking at the influence of the media and politicians, Gardner uncovers one of the central puzzles of our time: why are the safest people in history living in a culture of fear?